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 Using Kyoto to achieve zero net CO2 emissions
Ministry of Environment, Land and Sea of Italy
If no precautionary action is taken, emissions, CO2 concentrations and
temperature will continue to increase throughout the second half of twenty-first
century. According to the IEA World Energy Outlook 2006, by 2030, the world’s
ever-growing demand for energy will have resulted in a 50-60% rise in global CO2
energy-related emissions compared to 2000. CO2 concentration will be between
500 and 550 ppm (parts per million) and the world’s temperature between 1.5 to
2 degrees Celsius, by 2050.
According to the IPCC, a global emissions reduction of 30-50% will be reached by
2030-2050. But irreversible changes in the climate system can only be avoided by
stabilising CO2 concentration to safe levels, ie 450-500 ppmv (parts per million by
volume) before the end of the century.
While we are seeing the present signs of climate change, the divergence between
the current trend of global energy-related emissions and the protection of the
global climate security is dramatic.
Steps to Zero Emissions
The Kyoto Protocol is purely a preliminary step: industrialised countries will
probably meet the short-term targets, improving the available technologies both
nationally and in CDM and JI projects. Nevertheless, the “Kyoto System” and the
available technologies, in 2008-2012 and beyond 2012, are simply not enough to
achieve zero emissions.
According to the IEA “Alternative Scenario”, based on the mandatory policies,
regulations, market instruments and voluntary agreements, already adopted or
considered by the industrialised countries to improve energy efficiency and to
reduce emissions, in 2030 the OECD emissions will only be reduced by 16%,
resulting in a reduction of 5% of global emissions.
Achieving zero net CO2 emissions needs a long-term broader strategy on a global
scale to develop radical changes in the energy technologies and disseminate them
in the energy system. This includes:
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research & innovation, and energy policies, to reduce the “carbon intensity” of
the economy through the development and dissemination of new renewable
and energy efficiency technologies, hydrogen and carbon sequestration, such as
a new generation of nuclear power; |
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making the new clean and safe energy sources and technologies available and
cost effective in emerging economies and the developing world, to address both
energy security and emissions reduction. |
Measures should be drawn up and immediately implemented so as to even
approach the target of zero net CO2 emissions as a long-term global policy.
The Challenge
The challenge is to combine the short-term measures to meet Kyoto targets with
the long-term strategy to develop radical changes in the global energy system,
in order to avoid a “conflict of interests” between the short-term investments for
meeting the “administrative” obligations under Kyoto and the investments for the
long-term emissions reduction.
The trade-off between the current and the future measures is a key issue in the
complicated game of the post-Kyoto regime.
Considering the lifetime of power plants and industrial process (15 to 30 years), and taking into account the dimension of the investments in the global energy
system in the next 20-30 years (17 trillion dollars), government parties in the
Climate Change Convention and in the World Trade Organization should consider
the introduction of rules for the global energy market, starting from now and
based on a long time scale, for the application of:
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progressive more stringent “carbon intensity standard” for the energy
technologies; |
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progressive “carbon price” to be applied to fuels and technologies; and |
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the recognition of carbon credits in present CDM and JI schemes, corresponding
to future (post-2012) emissions reduction from the use of new technologies. |
This could be the framework for credible incentives for long-term investments in
new low carbon technologies, as well as for creating a post-2012 global emission
trading system able to drive the innovation in the global energy system.
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