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Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change in the UK
Atkins Global
The overwhelming consensus of scientists is that the climate is changing and our
activities are contributing to global warming. There are now more detailed and
reliable assessments of the consequences of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on
global warming and the implications for climate at different scales. Governments,
societies and businesses need to respond to the increasing information and
confidence about possible futures.
In the United Kingdom (UK), responses have been divided into mitigation, through
limiting emissions, and adaptation, which to date has largely been focused on
identifying impacts. In the future these responses may become increasingly
intertwined, particularly on the local scale e.g. new development will need to be
designed and implemented to be energy efficient and cope with future
climate change.
Impacts and Adaptation
Alerted by academic research centres the government took an early interest in
possible impacts. In 1997, the Department for the Environment set up the UK
Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) which helps stakeholders identify impacts
and develop adaptation strategies. UKCIP recently published Measuring Progress,
an overview of climate change impacts and adaptation. In the Atkins contribution
to the report, we drew together the findings from regional scoping studies
completed between 1998 and 2004. These studies, two of which Atkins led, were
based on literature review and, importantly, stakeholder involvement. They were
the first to examine impacts on a cross-sectoral, sub-UK level.
The scoping studies led to the formation of regional climate change partnerships,
a collaboration of public and private sector organisations. The regional
partnerships have been successful in raising awareness, engaging stakeholders and
building climate change thinking into regional plans and policies. The partnerships
have also been able to focus locally; for example, Atkins recently assessed the
impacts of climate change on London’s transport systems, which are of strategic
and economic importance to the capital.
UKCIP additionally provides scenarios of climate change from the output of
climate models. These have proved useful in strategic studies and essential for
more detailed risk assessments, for example in water resource planning and flood
risk management. In these sectors in particular, more sophisticated assessments
are being undertaken which also quantify uncertainties. This means looking
beyond the UK to incorporate outputs from other modelling groups. Increasingly
modellers and end-users are being brought closer together.
Future work is likely to concentrate on quantifying risk in critical sectors, while the
scoping of impacts across other sectors will continue to provide a more complete
picture. The major challenge for the next decade is to move from strategic impact
assessment to specific adaptations in policies, plans and in practice. The emerging national Adaptation Policy
Framework will examine the
adaptation process and should
facilitate action at the local level.
Mitigation & Emissions
Management
 With the strengthening
consensus on climate change,
organisations are responding,
not only to the physical changes
associated with climate change,
but also to regulatory changes
that are forcing adaptation and
GHG emissions reduction.
Atkins has a track record of
assisting organisations in
compliance with the growing
requirements of the European
Union (EU), UK and other Emissions Trading Schemes (ETS) and finding the most
appropriate strategy to address future GHG emissions.
Organisations develop their GHG emissions strategies in three stages:
1) Compliance, Monitoring & Reporting: Development of robust GHG
measurement, monitoring and reporting systems that stand up to the scrutiny of
independent verifiers, enabling informed GHG trading to take place.
2) Carbon Price Forecasting: An issue that ties into all strategic decisions is
knowledge of GHG price - current and future. Current GHG prices are obtainable
from commodity traders; however, future price is a complex matrix of political
decisions, energy use projections, and industrial activity assumptions. Atkins
(in association with its project partner, Science Applications International
Corporation) has the experience of regional energy modelling in the United States
and the EU, assisting clients with forecasting future prices and determining the
impact on financial performance.
3) Corporate Strategy: Obligated organisations need to develop long-term
emissions trading strategies to maximise opportunities (and minimise risks)
associated with emissions trading regimes. Consideration needs to be given to the
GHG trading options available. These include:
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establishment of a in-company trading desk; |
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use of trading desks operated by others (e.g. banks, financial institutions); |
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case-by-case brokering of emissions trades; |
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internal installation-specific reduction measures; and, |
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sponsorship of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) /Joint Implementation
(JI) projects. |
In developing a firm strategy on future GHG management and trading
arrangements, the relative merits of each option are explored. Atkins can
play a key role in facilitating the development, implementation and on-going
maintenance of a GHG strategy; ensuring its on-going delivery, suitability
and effectiveness.
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