World Meteorological Organization

Food security, freshwater availability, natural disaster mitigation, migration and public health are all dramatically affected by climate variability and change. Society’s ability to adapt depends directly on its ability to understand the myriad effects on local communities and manage the associated risks. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), with its international partners and the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) of its 188 Members, is working to provide a framework for such risk management in light of the changing climate.

The primary goal is to protect people and their property, especially in vulnerable communities, from the increasing risks stemming from climate change. Today, it is generally accepted that human activities are modifying the climate at an increasingly alarming rate. Increased emissions of greenhouse gases are warming the planet’s surface. Although reducing such emissions would help alleviate the problem, adaptation is a crucial component of any measure to address climate change.

Current signs of climate change

Global observations, particularly through space-based measurements, have shown a marked global decline in snow and ice cover, which is retreating increasingly earlier in the spring. Arctic sea ice is also shrinking, especially in the summer, permafrost is decreasing, and mountain glaciers are retreating. Large coastal areas of the ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica are thinning. The effects of these changes are dramatic, from shifting weather patterns to raising sea levels.

Recognition of the changing climate and its impacts over the past several decades has not been immediate. In 1976, WMO issued the first authoritative statement on the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the potential impacts on the Earth’s climate. Since then, WMO has spearheaded efforts to galvanise the international community around this important issue.

In 1979, WMO organised the First World Climate Conference, as a result of which WMO and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) jointly established the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988. The conference also led WMO and international partners to establish the World Climate Research Programme. WMO was instrumental in creating the United Nations Framework Climate Change Convention (UNFCCC), which followed from the 1990 Second World Climate Conference. The second conference also led to the establishment of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) by WMO and partner organisations, to facilitate the systematic collection of observational information about the global climate.

Through its programmes and those shared with partner organisations, WMO has been a principal provider of scientific and technical information about climate change. The IPCC in particular is now widely recognised as not only an important scientific and technical group but also a global instrument for peace. In 2007, the Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded its prestigious prize to the IPCC, jointly with former US Vice President Al Gore, “for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change”.

What is ahead?

Since 1988, IPCC has provided regular authoritative reports that assess the state of the global climate, as well as make predictions about the future. In its Fourth Assessment Report, released in 2007, IPCC concluded that global climate is warming at an increasing rate, most of which is very likely due to human activities, particularly fossil fuel burning and agriculture. The report also states that the impacts of this warming will intensify in the coming decades: rising sea levels, due to the thermal expansion of warming oceans and the melting of land ice; higher surface temperatures, with significant regional variation; and increased variation in wind and precipitation patterns, leading to more frequent and severe floods and droughts.

Most notably perhaps, it is very likely that extreme weather events will become even more frequent, widespread and intense into the 21st century. Over the last 50 years, extreme hydrometeorological events, such as storms, floods and droughts, have accounted for about 90%of all natural disasters. With IPCC projecting that such events are very likely to increase, it is vital to build the capacity to anticipate and respond to natural disasters, particularly in the Least Developed Countries and Small Island Developing States, which are the most vulnerable to extreme weather and climate events. While these countries are among the least responsible for generating the climate-changing emissions, they have very few resources to prepare for when disaster strikes. All countries, especially the most vulnerable ones, must be empowered to reduce risk from natural disasters.

Organising preparedness

Natural hazards cannot be prevented, but strengthening the capacities of the NMHSs can help to significantly reduce the death and destruction too often associated with such hazards. Over the years, WMO has contributed to prevention and preparedness measures, including risk assessment, emergency planning and response, and the operation of end-to-end multi-hazard warning systems. The WMO Disaster Risk Reduction Action Plan is one example of such efforts. Implemented through national and regional projects, it aims at the integration of climate predictions and information into disaster risk reduction at all levels.

Another issue of vital importance to global communities is securing food and water resources in the face of a changing climate. Dwindling global ice, combined with climate-induced shifts in rain and snow, is degrading worldwide freshwater resources. Ownership of water resources will become increasingly controversial, particularly in those areas with already limited resources. A warming climate will also aggravate desertification and drought in several parts of the world, impacting agriculture worldwide. Food and water managers need climate predictions to guide their future efforts.

Beyond food and water, climate change also directly affects health. Increased temperatures are spurring increased rates and spreads of malaria and other vector-borne diseases. Particularly in developing countries, climate information is needed for planning public health strategies to prevent such diseases.

Another challenge for local communities will be shifting migration patterns. Agricultural degradation, natural disasters and disease risk, coupled with rising sea levels, are likely to increase climate-induced migration. As populations shift, either within or across national borders, people may move into urban areas that lack the capacity to shelter, feed, or employ all the displaced people. Such a situation may aggravate the risk of conflict over food, water and energy.

These issues are but a few that highlight the acute need for using climate information and predictions in the development of socio-economic policies and, more generally, for informal decision-making. With that need in mind, the Fifteenth World Meteorological Congress, held in Geneva in May 2007, agreed to convene a World Climate Conference-3 in 2009. The conference, to be held from 31 August to 4 September 2009, aims at enhancing climate information for decision-making, to better adapt and plan for future climate change.

Closer interaction is needed between those generating the climate information and those who need the information for decision-making. WCC-3 wants to promote such cooperation, and improve the use of climate services. NMHS need to better understand user requirements and tailor climate information products to meet those needs. Through WCC-3 and other coordinated efforts, WMO is working to ensure that effective climate services are available to everyone — an operational toolbox for adaptation and advance planning for a changing planet.

W: www.wmo.int