Old Economy = Climate Crunch
Last June two relevant events took place in the hectic international agenda on climate change: the forum organised by GLOBE, Global Legislators Organization for a Balanced Environment (Rome, June 12-13)1 and the official preparatory meetings at the UNFCCC headquarter in Bonn (June 1-12)2. The nature and objectives were different, but the task ahead is the same: providing insights and most of all creative and ambitious solutions to our huge greenhouse gases emissions and their impacts on the planet.
One of the most interesting thing happening in the current debates is the convergence of the economic and climate problems into one complex global crisis generated by overexploitation of natural resources, overpopulation and dramatic imbalances in the distribution of wealth (more in developed nations) and impacts (more in developing countries) in the world. While in the forum GLOBE substantial criticism of the current economic model emerged, in the UN meeting accurate and diplomatic weighting of commitments and needs seemed to prevail. If on one side this is an aspect of the democratic process going on, on the other radical changes are expected in Bonn and Copenhagen, not in the numerous think thanks:these suggest, but do not eventually decide the way forward. In Germany the negotiations proceeded on emission targets and concerted actions, but some observers lamented an excessive attention of delegates not to disappoint other countries: David Turnbull, Director Climate Action Network International, said that the talks have been too slow and no one is taking leadership. Recently even expectations on Obama’s administration have calmed down although it is to be said that the Climate Bill has been finally approved at the House3.
But what is wrong with the progress from Kyoto (or from the Club of Rome in 1972) to Copenhagen? According to Ian Dunlop, an Australian economist and expert on energy, “despite...almost 20 years of debates on how to tackle climate change and solve the environmental crisis associated with global warming, practically nothing has been reached so far".4 Actually since 1990 global greenhouse gas emissions have risen by 17 percent, and the Kyoto protocol managed to basically limit this growth in only some of the countries compliant to their targets (the majority of nations do not even have obligations before 2012). This is clearly not enough and a new agreement raising the bar is absolutely crucial; arguably the most problematic aspect is the consensus needed: since as humankind we do not have one giant brain, but billions of them (and of mouths) the difficulty to reach a multilateral agreement in a democratic way is not that surprising. Nonetheless the United Nations Conventions on Climate Change, Biodiversity and Desertification are indeed sincere attempts to think altogether as a species.
”Mother nature does not do bailouts” had said Al Gore at the World Business Summit on Climate Change. Big questions are rising on the global economy and its system of values: is the GDP still a suitable indicator of “success” for a nation after having seen the consequences of an uncontrolled growth? If we look at the 2008 Health Development Index5 ranking, China is the 94th country despite its great GDP performances while the United States are 15th; Iceland, Norway and Canada occupy the first three places: shouldn’t they be in a new G8 for sustainability? Examples like the Danish conversion to renewables after the oil crisis in the 70s are to be imitated as well as countries with the highest HDI scores: this could transform the way we see development stressing social and environmental richness more than the simple, but misleading one described by the Gross Domestic Product. When ecological catastrophes happen the GDP generally grows (!) because the activities to restore the environment create jobs and money, but the planet cannot afford that anymore.
Written by Luca Marazzi on behalf of Responding To Climate Change
1. http://www.globeinternational.org
2. http://unfccc.int/meetings/sb30/items/4842.php
3. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/jun/27/barack-obama-climate-change-bill
4. http://www.newjerseynewsroom.com/science-updates/climate-change-we-have-run-out-of-time
5. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Development_Index
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