Investigating marine ecosystems links to climate change

International Council for the Exploration of the Sea

The world’s oceans play a key role in global change. Variations observed in ocean circulation and physical characteristics over the last century are many and projected to continue, based on the analyses and summaries presented in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The Danish RV “Dana” in the Godhåb fjord

Our ability to predict coastal and oceanic ecosystem response to climate change is hampered by an incomplete understanding of their subtle interaction. Research (e.g. into the impact of high concentrations of CO₂ in the oceans) is still in its infancy. But as weather patterns shape coastlines in the long term, influencing societal use of these densely populated regions, understanding is crucial to reducing the vulnerability of humans.

The International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES), established in 1902, coordinates and promotes marine research in the North Atlantic. We are a focal point for a community of more than 1,600 marine scientists, from 20 countries around the North Atlantic. Our remit is to gather information about marine ecosystems, fill gaps in existing knowledge and provide unbiased, non-political advice. This advice , such as how to harvest fish stocks on a sustainable basis, is then used by ICES Member Countries and international regulatory bodies to help manage the North Atlantic Ocean and adjacent seas, such as the Baltic and North Sea.

Research on climate change has been part of our work since the turn of the century (1902) and has intensified over the last decade. One outcome has been that ICES scientists have observed new ocean–atmosphere phenomena in the North Atlantic, called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These have stimulated a great deal of research into the effects of climate on marine ecosystems, which will lead to better management of marine resources as they are affected by marine regime shifts.

Diversity of work

ICES expert groups between 2000 and 2008 have produced results on a diversity of issues in this complex field, e.g. models of acidification and associated stressors and predictions of trends in chlorophyll and primary production in a warmer North Atlantic.

Results from research have to be integrated in a multidisciplinary manner. Policymakers need accurate, timely data which requires global dialogue across scientific disciplines and user communities. The ICES huge bank of oceanographic data from its Member Countries contains records dating from the early 1900s, making it a fundamental participant in any dialogue.

ICES has been working with other international organisations, networks, and global research programmes, aiming at greater cohesion in marine science as well as professional science communication. Recent cooperation with the North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES) and IOC resulted in the international symposium “Effects of Climate Change on the World Oceans” in Spain in 2008, gathering 382 participants from 48 countries. This was the first worldwide symposium on this issue, with many examples of the effects of global variability reported in the coastal zone and oceans. Potential effects of sea-level rise, erosion, extreme weather events, the combined effect of acidification and temperature increase were demonstrated and discussed.

As a forum for the development and evaluation of climate impact assessments at regional and global levels, ICES produces observation strategies, modelling and analytical tools, evaluation of risk and uncertainty, and presents to a variety of audiences ranging from specialists to the general public. Crucial research results and appropriately controlled data gathering, when used optimally, provide an appropriate background for this forum. ICES advice, development of strategies, and support to international policymaking will underpin the next IPCC assessment and continue to provide the public with accurate forecasts to meet the challenges of the changing world.

The International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES)
W: www.ices.int