Glacier in Andermatt/Switzerland being covered to protect it against summer melt. © Mario Farinato/WWF-Canon

A global deal in Copenhagen will serve all of our interests

WWF International

By 20 December we will know if the world’s leaders were really serious in Bali two years ago when they said they wanted a global deal to tackle climate change.

The economic and political world order has changed considerably since then, but what remains constant is that we still need an agreement to keep us safe from the worst consequences of global warming, and we need it now. If negotiators need any reminders, perhaps they should cut out this article and keep it in front of them during the long hours ahead in Copenhagen.

Recipe for success

Firstly, a global deal is in our own best societal interests. As humans we are part of a complex web of life, and global warming threatens the ecosystems and natural resources which we depend on for food, water, health, livelihoods and well-being. We are already seeing the devastating environmental impacts of climate change from the Arctic to the Amazon. Healthy ecosystems protect us against storms, flooding and other climate-related “natural” disasters. Protected areas aren’t just harbours for endangered wildlife – they help to keep the planet’s environment stable, representing considerable economic benefit: coral reefs and mangrove forests can mitigate the worst effects of storms in coastal areas, and forests play a key role in preventing floods and mudslides.

Secondly, a global deal is in our own best economic interests. The global economy may be showing some signs of recovery but if we simply rebuild the outmoded, carbon-based model, catastrophic climate change will undermine any chance of long-term economic stability. Already we are seeing the immense costs of global warming through escalating conflicts over food and water, increased frequency of extreme weather events such as droughts and hurricanes, and mass human displacement because of rising sea levels and desertification. All these climate impacts have major financial as well as humanitarian consequences – between 5% and 20% of global gross domestic product (GDP), according to the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change.

Yet against this, analyses from WWF, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), McKinsey and others show that serious climate action will cost only a fraction of a percentage point of annual growth in world GDP. In addition there is massive potential for sustainable growth and job creation under a low-carbon economic model. In China alone, the renewable energy sector already generates output worth US$17 billion and employs one million workers. The future for “green technologies” as energy, water, buildings, transportation and industry is huge. Some stimulus packages adopted by governments this year included investments in green infrastructure and jobs. That was a good start, but a deeper structural shift is needed.

And finally, a global deal is critical for security. Climate change will exacerbate already volatile international relationships and escalate conflicts over water, food and energy resources. By redrawing the physical map of the planet, global warming will act as a threat multiplier. Entire populations will become climate refugees, pushing millions to migrate and making others dependent on distributed aid for survival. Water scarcity will become increasingly critical as melted glaciers, drought and rising sea levels deprive millions of people of drinkable water or for crop irrigation. National budgets – already hard hit by the economic downturn – will be further squeezed to provide front-line disaster relief such as emergency evacuation, food, vaccines and shelters as well as rebuilding of infrastructure. Military spending will rise sharply in response to resource conflicts and international peace keeping.

Whatever our interest, whether as individuals, businesses or governments, a global deal in Copenhagen is crucial. We can’t wait any longer.

James Leape, Director-General
WWF International
W: www.panda.org