Page 19 - Respond 2019 Magazine

Respond

Blue Nile Falls, Ethiopia, home of the new Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (Photo: Giustino/Wikimedia)

The researchers used a technique called “Rainfall variability is just one cause For more information on this research, the
cluster analysis to define areas that tend to of electricity supply disruption but policy brief ‘Climate risks to hydropower
experience dry or wet years together. This our research highlights this potentially supply in eastern and southern Africa‘,
approach identified three rainfall clusters significant challenge for southern and can be accessed at http://www.lse.
in eastern Africa and seven in southern eastern Africa. Guidelines to incorporate ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/publication/
Africa. Analysis of the location of dams present and future climate risks into climate-risks-hydropower-supply-eastern-
planned for construction reveals that in infrastructure planning are emerging and southern-africa/
each of the regions the majority of dams they should consider how spatial patterns The policy brief is drawn from analysis
are concentrated in just one rainfall cluster. of rainfall variation and changes in climate of the spatial distribution of rainfall in
could affect hydropower supply.
The researchers point out that while dams the regions, as well as climate models
within regions will be dependent on the “The increasing importance of hydropower, and research into the impacts of the
same rainfall patterns, the rainfall patterns growing concentrations of dams in linked 2015/16 El Niño event. The brief explains
differ between regions. This indicates that river basins, and the potential for higher the increasing risk of concurrent climate-
new regional power-sharing mechanisms, levels of rainfall variability due to climate related disruption to hydropower and
called ‘Power Pools’, could provide change, underline the need for effective provides policy recommendations for
a means to buffer variations in river planning of hydropower in Africa.” overcoming the challenges.
discharge or reservoir storage and allow Dr Carole Dalin, co-author of the Nature The research was supported by the
electricity trading between regions.
Energy study and Senior Research Fellow UK Department for International
However, the researchers note that there at UCL ISR said: Development (DFID) and Natural
are considerable infrastructural and political “One of the main development challenges Environment Research Council (NERC)
challenges to these power-sharing systems. through the Future Climate for Africa
in southern and eastern Africa in the
Professor Declan Conway, lead author of coming decades is to improve and expand Programme and a project called UMFULA,
as well as the South Africa National
the Nature Energy study and Professorial power generation capacity and access Research Foundation. For related research
Research Fellow at the Grantham Research to electricity. Hydropower is already a visit www.futureclimateafrica.org.
Institute said: significant source in the electricity mix
and is planned to become even more This news story was originally published
“More electricity is being supplied important, however, it is exposed to as a press release alongside the brief in
by hydropower in sub-Saharan Africa increasing precipitation variability. In August 2018.
than ever before and the proportion this paper, we map these precipitation
of electricity from hydropower is likely patterns with existing and planned dam
to grow further. The last decade has sites, and find that concurrent, climate-
seen renewed interest in dams, with related risk is expected to increase in both
the commissioning of several major regions. This is an important aspect to
new developments, including the Grand consider in hydropower planning.”
Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue
Nile, now almost completed.

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